Linlithgow Rose 1–4 Falkirk: Result & Stats

Linlithgow Rose

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Falkirk

T. Coyne 20'

P. Dixon 86'

D. McManus 78'

C. Sammon 30', 8'

11/22/2019

FA Cup · 3rd RoundPrestonfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Linlithgow Rose33%

×Draw22%

Falkirk46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linlithgow RoseExpected goals in this matchFalkirk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.96

Linlithgow Rose

1.63

Falkirk

1.96

Falkirk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

2.14

creates per match

2.56

1.36

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Linlithgow Rose

2.14

Falkirk

2.56

allows per match

Linlithgow Rose

1.36

Falkirk

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linlithgow Rose+0.00on par

Falkirk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linlithgow Rose ↓

Falkirk →

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Linlithgow Rose or draw

54%

Linlithgow Rose or Falkirk

78%

Draw or Falkirk

67%

Winning margin

Linlithgow Rose wins by 2+

16%

Falkirk wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Linlithgow Rose 1+ goals

80%

Linlithgow Rose 2+ goals

48%

Linlithgow Rose 3+ goals

22%

Falkirk 1+ goals

86%

Falkirk 2+ goals

58%

Falkirk 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Linlithgow Rose (draw refunded)

42%

Falkirk (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linlithgow Rose at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Falkirk away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linlithgow Rose attack 2.14 + Falkirk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.63

Falkirk attack 2.56 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Linlithgow Rose scores more

33%

level

22%

Falkirk scores more

46%

Falkirk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

C. Sammon↳ D. McManus

20'

T. Coyne↳ R. Allum

21'

R. Mutch

30'

C. Sammon↳ M. Gomis

63'

S. Collumbine← G. Thom

73'

M. Tidser← M. Gomis

78'

D. McManus↳ P. Dixon

80'

C. Strickland← K. McKinlay

83'

Danny Smith← S. Slaven

86'

P. Dixon

89'

S. Collumbine

89'

R. MacLean← L. Longridge

89'

D. Johnstone← D. McManus

Linlithgow

Falkirk

⚽A

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: B. Ferguson

63'▲S. Collumbine←▼G. Thom

80'▲C. Strickland←▼K. McKinlay

83'▲Danny Smith←▼S. Slaven

Linlithgow Rose substitutes

15Collumbine9Strickland19Smith12Smith21Wilson6Hare20Hutchison

73'▲M. Tidser←▼M. Gomis

89'▲R. MacLean←▼L. Longridge

89'▲D. Johnstone←▼D. McManus

Falkirk substitutes

12Tidser11MacLean10Johnstone21Telfer7Connolly8McShane1Bell

FA Cup: Linlithgow Rose 1–4 Falkirk

Falkirk beat Linlithgow Rose 4-1 in FA Cup on November 22, 2019.

Goals: C. Sammon (8', 30'), T. Coyne (20'), D. McManus (78'), P. Dixon (86').

The match was played at Prestonfield in Linlithgow.

Linlithgow Rose vs Falkirk — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Linlithgow Rose 1–4 Falkirk