Linlithgow Rose vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic — League #731 2026
League #731Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Linlithgow Rose41%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Linlithgow Rose creates 11% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Linlithgow Rose ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Linlithgow Rose at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Linlithgow Rose attack 2.45 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.53
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.40 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Linlithgow Rose at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Linlithgow Rose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sampleLinlithgow Rose
Stirling UniversityBonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Clydebank
Tranent Juniors
Cumbernauld Colts
Berwick Rangers
Bo'ness United
Caledonian Braves
Gala Fairydean Rovers
Hearts U21
Civil Service Strollers
Albion Rovers
Gretna 2008
Cowdenbeath
Celtic II
Broxburn Athletic
East StirlingshireIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Linlithgow Rose host Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic on Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #731 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Linlithgow Rose vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic beat Linlithgow Rose 2-1 in League #731 on December 6, 2025.