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Linlithgow Rose vs Berwick Rangers — FA Cup 2019

Linlithgow Rose
Linlithgow Rose
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundPrestonfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Linlithgow Rose59%
×Draw20%
Berwick Rangers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linlithgow Rose
2.27
Berwick Rangers
1.28

Linlithgow Rose creates 77% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Linlithgow Rose
2.14
Berwick Rangers
1.20

allows per match

Linlithgow Rose
1.36
Berwick Rangers
2.40

finishing

Linlithgow Rose+0.00on par
Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linlithgow Rose ↓

Berwick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Linlithgow Rose or draw
79%
Linlithgow Rose or Berwick Rangers
80%
Draw or Berwick Rangers
41%

Winning margin

Linlithgow Rose wins by 2+
37%
Berwick Rangers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Linlithgow Rose 1+ goals
90%
Linlithgow Rose 2+ goals
66%
Linlithgow Rose 3+ goals
39%
Berwick Rangers 1+ goals
72%
Berwick Rangers 2+ goals
37%
Berwick Rangers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Linlithgow Rose (draw refunded)
74%
Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linlithgow Rose at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linlithgow Rose attack 2.14 + Berwick Rangers defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.27

Berwick Rangers attack 1.20 + Linlithgow Rose defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Linlithgow Rose scores more
59%
level
20%
Berwick Rangers scores more
21%

Linlithgow Rose at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Linlithgow Rose will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linlithgow Rose vs Berwick Rangers

Linlithgow Rose beat Berwick Rangers 2-1 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Prestonfield in Linlithgow.