Linköping W 1–1 Norrköping W: Result & Stats

Linköping W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norrköping W

4/20/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 4Bilbörsen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Linköping W44%

×Draw24%

Norrköping W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linköping WExpected goals in this matchNorrköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.41

Linköping W

1.67

Norrköping W

1.41

Linköping W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

2.01

creates per match

1.30

1.51

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Linköping W

2.01

Norrköping W

1.30

allows per match

Linköping W

1.51

Norrköping W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linköping W+0.00on par

Norrköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linköping W ↓

Norrköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Linköping W or draw

67%

Linköping W or Norrköping W

76%

Draw or Norrköping W

56%

Winning margin

Linköping W wins by 2+

23%

Norrköping W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Linköping W 1+ goals

81%

Linköping W 2+ goals

50%

Linköping W 3+ goals

23%

Norrköping W 1+ goals

76%

Norrköping W 2+ goals

41%

Norrköping W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Linköping W (draw refunded)

57%

Norrköping W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linköping W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

Norrköping W away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linköping W attack 2.01 + Norrköping W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Norrköping W attack 1.30 + Linköping W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Linköping W scores more

44%

level

24%

Norrköping W scores more

33%

Linköping W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Linköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff