Linköping W 1–1 Malmö FF W: Result & Stats

Linköping W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Malmö FF W

M. De Jongh 75'

I. D'Aquila 6'

5/3/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 6Bilbörsen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linköping W32%

×Draw22%

Malmö FF W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linköping WExpected goals in this matchMalmö FF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.92

Linköping W

1.56

Malmö FF W

1.92

Malmö FF W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 19 away

2.01

creates per match

2.32

1.51

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Linköping W

2.01

Malmö FF W

2.32

allows per match

Linköping W

1.51

Malmö FF W

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linköping W+0.00on par

Malmö FF W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linköping W ↓

Malmö FF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Linköping W or draw

54%

Linköping W or Malmö FF W

78%

Draw or Malmö FF W

68%

Winning margin

Linköping W wins by 2+

15%

Malmö FF W wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Linköping W 1+ goals

79%

Linköping W 2+ goals

46%

Linköping W 3+ goals

21%

Malmö FF W 1+ goals

85%

Malmö FF W 2+ goals

57%

Malmö FF W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Linköping W (draw refunded)

41%

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linköping W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

Malmö FF W away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linköping W attack 2.01 + Malmö FF W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Malmö FF W attack 2.32 + Linköping W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Linköping W scores more

32%

level

22%

Malmö FF W scores more

46%

Malmö FF W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

I. D'Aquila↳ M. Persson

53'

María Catharína Ólafsdóttir Grós

62'

M. De Jongh← S. Eriksson

75'

M. De Jongh

80'

B. Persson← I. Belloumou

81'

E. Lundin← L. Bjork

82'

P. Doran← I. Dirdal

86'

Polly Doran

90+2'

T. Andersson← L. Halttunen

Linköping3-5-2

Malmö4-2-3-1

23

Fornes

3

Kosola

10

⚽

D'Aquila

16

Skoog

8

A

Persson

11

Kristell

17

▼

15

6

2

31

1

16

25

10

11

6

71

15

▼

Bjork

8

▼

Eriksson

14

▼

Dirdal

33

▼

Halttunen

Manager: Willie Kirk

62'▲M. De Jongh←▼S. Eriksson

81'▲E. Lundin←▼L. Bjork

82'▲P. Doran←▼I. Dirdal

90+2'▲T. Andersson←▼L. Halttunen

Linköping W substitutes

20Wiklund3Doran9Osman12Alden13Lundin17Gabarra18Jongh24Andersson

Manager: Jonas Valfridsson

80'▲B. Persson←▼I. Belloumou

Malmö FF W substitutes

30Borg13Wahlgren14Astrom22Persson18Gustafsson19Plantin20Mitkovska33Khatawi32Breland