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Linköping W vs Kristianstad W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Linköping W
Linköping W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
T. Sandén 73'
H. Eiríksdóttir 23'
10/20/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 24Bilbörsen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Linköping W40%
×Draw23%
Kristianstad W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linköping W
1.70
Kristianstad W
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 79 away

creates per match

Linköping W
2.01
Kristianstad W
1.78

allows per match

Linköping W
1.51
Kristianstad W
1.39

finishing

Linköping W+0.00on par
Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linköping W ↓

Kristianstad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Linköping W or draw
62%
Linköping W or Kristianstad W
77%
Draw or Kristianstad W
60%

Winning margin

Linköping W wins by 2+
20%
Kristianstad W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Linköping W 1+ goals
82%
Linköping W 2+ goals
51%
Linköping W 3+ goals
24%
Kristianstad W 1+ goals
81%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
49%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Linköping W (draw refunded)
51%
Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linköping W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linköping W attack 2.01 + Kristianstad W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.70

Kristianstad W attack 1.78 + Linköping W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Linköping W scores more
40%
level
23%
Kristianstad W scores more
38%

Linköping W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Linköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
H. EiríksdóttirKristianstad WKristianstad W · M
8.9

Match Events

23'
H. Eiríksdóttir
57'
Sofia Reidy
59'
Delaney Pridham
62'
A. Claypole← D. Pridham
65'
María Catharína Ólafsdóttir Grós
67'
E. Alanen← F. Widén
67'
T. Sandén← R. Siemsen
68'
Katla Tryggvadóttir
73'
T. Sandén
80'
E. Broddheimer← C. Wickenheiser
80'
J. Harrysson← S. Reidy
83'
T. Andersson← E. Bakker
90'
E. Lundin← S. Eriksson

Possession

49%Linköping

Shots

11Linköping

Pass accuracy

49%Linköping

Statistics

LinköpingKristianstad
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots22
0.83Expected Goals (xG)2.48
1Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots22
1On Target6
5Off Target8
5Blocked6
6Inside Box13
5Outside Box9
Passing
49%Possession51%
449Total Passes467
365Accurate Passes386
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Linköping W vs Kristianstad W

Kristianstad W beat Linköping W 2-0 in Damallsvenskan on October 20, 2024.

Goals: H. Eiríksdóttir (23'), T. Sandén (73').

Kristianstad W controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bilbörsen Arena in Linköping.