Linköping W 1–1 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Linköping W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Häcken W

M. De Jongh 90'

C. Larisey 83'

4/22/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 2Bilbörsen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Linköping W27%

×Draw22%

Häcken W51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linköping WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.90

Linköping W

1.32

Häcken W

1.90

Häcken W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 58 away

2.01

creates per match

2.28

1.51

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Linköping W

2.01

Häcken W

2.28

allows per match

Linköping W

1.51

Häcken W

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linköping W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linköping W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Linköping W or draw

49%

Linköping W or Häcken W

78%

Draw or Häcken W

73%

Winning margin

Linköping W wins by 2+

11%

Häcken W wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Linköping W 1+ goals

73%

Linköping W 2+ goals

38%

Linköping W 3+ goals

15%

Häcken W 1+ goals

85%

Häcken W 2+ goals

56%

Häcken W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Linköping W (draw refunded)

34%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linköping W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

Häcken W away — creates 2.28, concedes 0.64 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linköping W attack 2.01 + Häcken W defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Häcken W attack 2.28 + Linköping W defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Linköping W scores more

27%

level

22%

Häcken W scores more

51%

Häcken W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Häcken W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

E. Östlund

Linköping W · D

7.6

Match Events

58'

A. Csiki← A. Anvegård

60'

M. De Jongh← L. Björk

66'

C. Larisey← M. Nildén

66'

K. Kosola← A. Sandberg

67'

Noor Eckhoff

78'

D. Pridham← E. Lundin

83'

C. Larisey

88'

R. Grant← J. Fossdalsá

89'

I. Dirdal← V. Koivisto

90'

M. De Jongh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LinköpingHäcken

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots19

1.17Expected Goals (xG)2.24

0Corners3

7Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots19

2On Target6

3Off Target6

2Blocked7

6Inside Box9

1Outside Box10

Passing

37%Possession63%

408Total Passes791

302Accurate Passes691

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2