Liniers Bahía Blanca 1–0 Sportivo Peñarol

Liniers Bahía Blanca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Peñarol

8/28/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 27Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca45%

×Draw28%

Sportivo Peñarol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liniers Bahía BlancaExpected goals in this matchSportivo Peñarol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.98

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.34

Sportivo Peñarol

0.98

Liniers Bahía Blanca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 62 away

1.03

creates per match

0.87

1.09

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.03

Sportivo Peñarol

0.87

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.09

Sportivo Peñarol

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Sportivo Peñarol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Sportivo Peñarol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw

73%

Liniers Bahía Blanca or Sportivo Peñarol

72%

Draw or Sportivo Peñarol

55%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+

21%

Sportivo Peñarol wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals

74%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals

39%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals

15%

Sportivo Peñarol 1+ goals

62%

Sportivo Peñarol 2+ goals

26%

Sportivo Peñarol 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)

62%

Sportivo Peñarol (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Sportivo Peñarol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.66 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Sportivo Peñarol defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sportivo Peñarol attack 0.87 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more

45%

level

28%

Sportivo Peñarol scores more

27%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff