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Liniers Bahía Blanca vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
8/2/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 24Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca33%
×Draw30%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.99
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 102 away

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.03
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1.03

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.09
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0.95

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par
Olimpo Bahia Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Olimpo Bahia Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw
63%
Liniers Bahía Blanca or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
70%
Draw or Olimpo Bahia Blanca
67%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
12%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
63%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
26%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
8%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1+ goals
65%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 2+ goals
29%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
47%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Olimpo Bahia Blanca away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Olimpo Bahia Blanca defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Olimpo Bahia Blanca attack 1.03 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
33%
level
30%
Olimpo Bahia Blanca scores more
37%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Olimpo Bahia Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Liniers Bahía Blanca 1–3 Olimpo Bahia Blanca

Olimpo Bahia Blanca beat Liniers Bahía Blanca 3-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.