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Liniers Bahía Blanca vs Independiente De Chivilcoy — Torneo Federal A 2018

Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente De Chivilcoy
Independiente De Chivilcoy
7/21/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 20Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca38%
×Draw32%
Independiente De Chivilcoy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.02
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.88

Liniers Bahía Blanca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 87 away

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.03
Independiente De Chivilcoy
0.67

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.09
Independiente De Chivilcoy
1.01

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par
Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Independiente De Chivilcoy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw
70%
Liniers Bahía Blanca or Independiente De Chivilcoy
68%
Draw or Independiente De Chivilcoy
62%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
15%
Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
64%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
27%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
8%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals
59%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals
22%
Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
55%
Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.01 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 0.67 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
38%
level
32%
Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more
30%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Liniers Bahía Blanca 1–1 Independiente De Chivilcoy

Liniers Bahía Blanca and Independiente De Chivilcoy drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on July 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.