Liniers Bahía Blanca 2–1 Cipolletti: Result & Stats

Liniers Bahía Blanca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cipolletti

6/22/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group A - 15Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca39%

×Draw30%

Cipolletti31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liniers Bahía BlancaExpected goals in this matchCipolletti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.95

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.10

Cipolletti

0.95

Liniers Bahía Blanca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

1.03

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.03

Cipolletti

0.80

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca

1.09

Cipolletti

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Cipolletti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Cipolletti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw

69%

Liniers Bahía Blanca or Cipolletti

70%

Draw or Cipolletti

61%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+

16%

Cipolletti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals

67%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals

30%

Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals

10%

Cipolletti 1+ goals

61%

Cipolletti 2+ goals

25%

Cipolletti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)

56%

Cipolletti (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Cipolletti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.18 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Cipolletti defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cipolletti attack 0.80 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more

39%

level

30%

Cipolletti scores more

31%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff