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Cipolletti vs Liniers Bahía Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Cipolletti
Cipolletti
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
10/1/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 32Estadio La Visera de Cemento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cipolletti56%
×Draw27%
Liniers Bahía Blanca17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cipolletti
1.45
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.66

Cipolletti creates 120% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 33 away

creates per match

Cipolletti
1.28
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.58

allows per match

Cipolletti
0.73
Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.61

finishing

Cipolletti+0.00on par
Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cipolletti ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cipolletti or draw
83%
Cipolletti or Liniers Bahía Blanca
73%
Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca
44%

Winning margin

Cipolletti wins by 2+
29%
Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cipolletti 1+ goals
77%
Cipolletti 2+ goals
42%
Cipolletti 3+ goals
18%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
48%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
14%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cipolletti (draw refunded)
77%
Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cipolletti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 110 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cipolletti attack 1.28 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Cipolletti defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cipolletti scores more
56%
level
27%
Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
17%

Cipolletti at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cipolletti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cipolletti vs Liniers Bahía Blanca

Liniers Bahía Blanca beat Cipolletti 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Visera de Cemento in Cipolletti, Provincia de Río Negro.