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Liniers Bahía Blanca vs Argentino Monte Maíz — Torneo Federal A 2018

Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Argentino Monte Maíz
Argentino Monte Maíz
7/31/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group A - 22Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca37%
×Draw30%
Argentino Monte Maíz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.08
Argentino Monte Maíz
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 71 away

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.03
Argentino Monte Maíz
0.92

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.09
Argentino Monte Maíz
1.14

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par
Argentino Monte Maíz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Argentino Monte Maíz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw
67%
Liniers Bahía Blanca or Argentino Monte Maíz
70%
Draw or Argentino Monte Maíz
63%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
15%
Argentino Monte Maíz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
66%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
29%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
10%
Argentino Monte Maíz 1+ goals
64%
Argentino Monte Maíz 2+ goals
27%
Argentino Monte Maíz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
53%
Argentino Monte Maíz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Argentino Monte Maíz away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Argentino Monte Maíz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Argentino Monte Maíz attack 0.92 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
37%
level
30%
Argentino Monte Maíz scores more
33%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Liniers Bahía Blanca 0–1 Argentino Monte Maíz

Argentino Monte Maíz beat Liniers Bahía Blanca 1-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 31, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.