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Linfield W vs Sligo Rovers W — All-Island Cup - Women 2023

Linfield W
Linfield W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sligo Rovers W
Sligo Rovers W
A. Clarke 45+13'
K. McKenna 90+2'
5/24/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Midgley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Linfield W68%
×Draw18%
Sligo Rovers W14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield W
2.46
Sligo Rovers W
1.04

Linfield W creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Linfield W
2.25
Sligo Rovers W
0.83

allows per match

Linfield W
1.25
Sligo Rovers W
2.67

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par
Sligo Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Sligo Rovers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw
86%
Linfield W or Sligo Rovers W
82%
Draw or Sligo Rovers W
32%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+
46%
Sligo Rovers W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals
91%
Linfield W 2+ goals
70%
Linfield W 3+ goals
44%
Sligo Rovers W 1+ goals
65%
Sligo Rovers W 2+ goals
28%
Sligo Rovers W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)
83%
Sligo Rovers W (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Sligo Rovers W away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 2.25 + Sligo Rovers W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Sligo Rovers W attack 0.83 + Linfield W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Linfield W scores more
68%
level
18%
Sligo Rovers W scores more
14%

Linfield W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+13'
A. Clarke
90+2'
K. McKenna

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linfield W vs Sligo Rovers W

Linfield W and Sligo Rovers W drew 1-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on May 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Clarke (45+13'), K. McKenna (90+2').

The match was played at Midgley Park in Belfast.