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Linfield W vs Shamrock Rovers W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Linfield W
Linfield W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shamrock Rovers W
Shamrock Rovers W
Unknown 88'
T. Kinnevey 51'
E. Corbet 48'
4/5/2026All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Linfield W49%
×Draw21%
Shamrock Rovers W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield W
2.13
Shamrock Rovers W
1.63

Linfield W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Linfield W
2.25
Shamrock Rovers W
2.00

allows per match

Linfield W
1.25
Shamrock Rovers W
2.00

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par
Shamrock Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Shamrock Rovers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw
70%
Linfield W or Shamrock Rovers W
79%
Draw or Shamrock Rovers W
51%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+
29%
Shamrock Rovers W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals
88%
Linfield W 2+ goals
63%
Linfield W 3+ goals
35%
Shamrock Rovers W 1+ goals
80%
Shamrock Rovers W 2+ goals
48%
Shamrock Rovers W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)
62%
Shamrock Rovers W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Shamrock Rovers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 2.25 + Shamrock Rovers W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Shamrock Rovers W attack 2.00 + Linfield W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Linfield W scores more
49%
level
21%
Shamrock Rovers W scores more
30%

Linfield W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
E. Corbet
51'
T. Kinnevey
88'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linfield W vs Shamrock Rovers W

Shamrock Rovers W beat Linfield W 2-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on April 5, 2026.

Goals: E. Corbet (48'), T. Kinnevey (51'), ? (88').