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Linfield W vs Mid-Ulster W — Premiership Women 2024

Linfield W
Linfield W
FT
7 – 1
HT: 6 – 1
Mid-Ulster W
Mid-Ulster W
7/1/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 6Midgley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Linfield W94%
×Draw4%
Mid-Ulster W2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield W
5.46
Mid-Ulster W
0.88

Linfield W creates 520% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

creates per match

Linfield W
4.05
Mid-Ulster W
0.25

allows per match

Linfield W
1.50
Mid-Ulster W
6.88

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par
Mid-Ulster W+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Mid-Ulster W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (9%) · grid covers 52% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
82%18%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw
98%
Linfield W or Mid-Ulster W
96%
Draw or Mid-Ulster W
6%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+
85%
Mid-Ulster W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals
99%
Linfield W 2+ goals
96%
Linfield W 3+ goals
87%
Mid-Ulster W 1+ goals
59%
Mid-Ulster W 2+ goals
22%
Mid-Ulster W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)
98%
Mid-Ulster W (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 4.05, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

Mid-Ulster W away — creates 0.25, concedes 6.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 4.05 + Mid-Ulster W defence 6.88 → ÷2 → 5.46

Mid-Ulster W attack 0.25 + Linfield W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Linfield W scores more
94%
level
4%
Mid-Ulster W scores more
2%

Linfield W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Linfield W 7–1 Mid-Ulster W

Linfield W beat Mid-Ulster W 7-1 in Premiership Women on July 1, 2024.

The match was played at Midgley Park in Belfast.