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Linfield W vs Lisburn Rangers W — Premiership Women 2024

Linfield W
Linfield W
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Lisburn Rangers W
Lisburn Rangers W
5/24/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 3Midgley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Linfield W61%
×Draw17%
Lisburn Rangers W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield W
2.94
Lisburn Rangers W
1.75

Linfield W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Linfield W
4.05
Lisburn Rangers W
2.00

allows per match

Linfield W
1.50
Lisburn Rangers W
1.83

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par
Lisburn Rangers W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Lisburn Rangers W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw
78%
Linfield W or Lisburn Rangers W
83%
Draw or Lisburn Rangers W
39%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+
42%
Lisburn Rangers W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals
95%
Linfield W 2+ goals
79%
Linfield W 3+ goals
55%
Lisburn Rangers W 1+ goals
83%
Lisburn Rangers W 2+ goals
52%
Lisburn Rangers W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)
74%
Lisburn Rangers W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 4.05, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

Lisburn Rangers W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 4.05 + Lisburn Rangers W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.94

Lisburn Rangers W attack 2.00 + Linfield W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Linfield W scores more
61%
level
17%
Lisburn Rangers W scores more
22%

Linfield W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linfield W vs Lisburn Rangers W

Lisburn Rangers W beat Linfield W 5-2 in Premiership Women on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Midgley Park in Belfast.