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Linfield W vs Larne W — Premiership Women 2026

Linfield W
Linfield W
FT
11 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Larne W
Larne W
R. Bassett 67'
A. Clarke 59'
C. Chambers 56', 53'
H. Doherty 51'
Z. McGlynn 49', 28'
E. Reilly 22', 21', 3'
J. McDade 15'
7/25/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 8Midgley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Linfield W90%
×Draw7%
Larne W4%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield W
4.30
Larne W
0.87

Linfield W creates 394% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Linfield W
4.40
Larne W
0.67

allows per match

Linfield W
1.07
Larne W
4.20

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par
Larne W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Larne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw
96%
Linfield W or Larne W
93%
Draw or Larne W
10%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+
77%
Larne W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals
98%
Linfield W 2+ goals
92%
Linfield W 3+ goals
77%
Larne W 1+ goals
58%
Larne W 2+ goals
22%
Larne W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)
96%
Larne W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Larne W away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 4.40 + Larne W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 4.30

Larne W attack 0.67 + Linfield W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Linfield W scores more
90%
level
7%
Larne W scores more
4%

Linfield W at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
E. Reilly
15'
J. McDade
21'
E. Reilly
22'
E. Reilly
28'
Z. McGlynn
49'
Z. McGlynn
51'
H. Doherty
53'
C. Chambers
56'
C. Chambers
59'
A. Clarke
67'
R. Bassett

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Linfield W 11–0 Larne W

Linfield W beat Larne W 11-0 in Premiership Women on July 25, 2025.

Goals: E. Reilly (3', 21', 22'), J. McDade (15'), Z. McGlynn (28', 49'), H. Doherty (51'), C. Chambers (53', 56'), A. Clarke (59'), R. Bassett (67').

The match was played at Midgley Park in Belfast.