Linfield W 0–1 Glentoran BU W: Result & Stats

Linfield W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Glentoran BU W

A. Kerr 36'

10/5/2025

Premiership Women · Championship Round - 2Midgley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Linfield W45%

×Draw18%

Glentoran BU W37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Linfield WExpected goals in this matchGlentoran BU W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.86

2.61

Linfield W

2.86

Glentoran BU W

2.61

Linfield W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

4.40

creates per match

4.15

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Linfield W

4.40

Glentoran BU W

4.15

allows per match

Linfield W

1.07

Glentoran BU W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par

Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Glentoran BU W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw

63%

Linfield W or Glentoran BU W

82%

Draw or Glentoran BU W

55%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+

28%

Glentoran BU W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals

94%

Linfield W 2+ goals

77%

Linfield W 3+ goals

53%

Glentoran BU W 1+ goals

93%

Glentoran BU W 2+ goals

73%

Glentoran BU W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)

55%

Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 4.15, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 4.40 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.86

Glentoran BU W attack 4.15 + Linfield W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Linfield W scores more

45%

level

18%

Glentoran BU W scores more

37%

Linfield W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

A. Kerr

Linfield

Glentoran

Manager: P. Lewis

Manager: K. Turner