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Linfield W vs Crusaders W — Premiership Women 2026

Linfield W
Linfield W
Preview
18:45
Crusaders W
Crusaders W
8/28/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group Stage
Big match
68%
Linfield W
model favours
68%15%17%

Both sides lean high-scoring (84% and 100% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

3–1
likely score
86%
over 2.5 goals
78%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Linfield W68%
×Draw15%
Crusaders W17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield W
3.29
Crusaders W
1.65

Linfield W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Linfield W
4.30
Crusaders W
2.00

allows per match

Linfield W
1.30
Crusaders W
2.27

finishing

Linfield W+0.00on par
Crusaders W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield W ↓

Crusaders W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Linfield W or draw
83%
Linfield W or Crusaders W
85%
Draw or Crusaders W
32%

Winning margin

Linfield W wins by 2+
49%
Crusaders W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Linfield W 1+ goals
96%
Linfield W 2+ goals
83%
Linfield W 3+ goals
62%
Crusaders W 1+ goals
81%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
49%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Linfield W (draw refunded)
80%
Crusaders W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield W at home — creates 4.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Crusaders W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield W attack 4.30 + Crusaders W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 3.29

Crusaders W attack 2.00 + Linfield W defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Linfield W scores more
68%
level
15%
Crusaders W scores more
17%

Linfield W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 100% of Crusaders W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Linfield W score first in only 16% of matches
  • Crusaders W score first in only 20% of matches
  • 84% of Linfield W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Linfield W have scored in 10 games running
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Linfield W 4 vs Crusaders W 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DWWWL
W
DLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Linfield W face Crusaders W (Premiership Women)

Premiership Women returns with Linfield W hosting Crusaders W. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.