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Crusaders W vs Linfield W — Premiership Women 2026

Crusaders W
Crusaders W
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Linfield W
Linfield W
C. Chambers 80'
E. Reilly 65'
Z. McGlynn 43'
E. Myles 35', 33', 30'
8/1/2025Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 9Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Crusaders W9%
×Draw11%
Linfield W80%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crusaders W
1.34
Linfield W
3.93

Linfield W creates 193% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Crusaders W
1.69
Linfield W
4.43

allows per match

Crusaders W
3.44
Linfield W
1.00

finishing

Crusaders W+0.00on par
Linfield W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crusaders W ↓

Linfield W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Crusaders W or draw
20%
Crusaders W or Linfield W
89%
Draw or Linfield W
91%

Winning margin

Crusaders W wins by 2+
3%
Linfield W wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

Crusaders W 1+ goals
74%
Crusaders W 2+ goals
39%
Crusaders W 3+ goals
15%
Linfield W 1+ goals
98%
Linfield W 2+ goals
89%
Linfield W 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Crusaders W (draw refunded)
10%
Linfield W (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crusaders W at home — creates 1.69, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

Linfield W away — creates 4.43, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crusaders W attack 1.69 + Linfield W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Linfield W attack 4.43 + Crusaders W defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 3.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Crusaders W scores more
9%
level
11%
Linfield W scores more
80%

Linfield W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
E. Myles
33'
E. Myles
35'
E. Myles
43'
Z. McGlynn
65'
E. Reilly
80'
C. Chambers

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Crusaders W 0–6 Linfield W

Linfield W beat Crusaders W 6-0 in Premiership Women on August 1, 2025.

Goals: E. Myles (30', 33', 35'), Z. McGlynn (43'), E. Reilly (65'), C. Chambers (80').

The match was played at Seaview in Belfast.