Linfield 3–1 Vllaznia Shkodër: Result & Stats

Linfield

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vllaznia Shkodër

7/13/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Linfield60%

×Draw19%

Vllaznia Shkodër21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinfieldExpected goals in this matchVllaznia Shkodër

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.35

Linfield

2.41

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.35

Linfield creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.11

creates per match

1.14

1.56

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Linfield

2.11

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.14

allows per match

Linfield

1.56

Vllaznia Shkodër

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Linfield or draw

79%

Linfield or Vllaznia Shkodër

81%

Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër

40%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+

39%

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals

91%

Linfield 2+ goals

69%

Linfield 3+ goals

43%

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

74%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

39%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)

75%

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 2.11 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.41

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.14 + Linfield defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Linfield scores more

60%

level

19%

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

21%

Linfield at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff