Linfield 3–2 Sutjeska: Result & Stats

Linfield

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sutjeska

8/13/2019

UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Linfield44%

×Draw27%

Sutjeska28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinfieldExpected goals in this matchSutjeska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.03

Linfield

1.36

Sutjeska

1.03

Linfield creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

0.67

1.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Linfield

1.40

Sutjeska

0.67

allows per match

Linfield

1.40

Sutjeska

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Sutjeska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Linfield or draw

72%

Linfield or Sutjeska

73%

Draw or Sutjeska

56%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+

21%

Sutjeska wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals

74%

Linfield 2+ goals

39%

Linfield 3+ goals

16%

Sutjeska 1+ goals

64%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

28%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)

61%

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 1.40 + Sutjeska defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sutjeska attack 0.67 + Linfield defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Linfield scores more

44%

level

27%

Sutjeska scores more

28%

Linfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff