Linfield 0–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Linfield

0 – 1

Stoke City

8/15/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Linfield22%

×Draw25%

Stoke City53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinfieldExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.64

Linfield

0.95

Stoke City

1.64

Stoke City creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

1.60

1.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Linfield

0.50

Stoke City

1.60

allows per match

Linfield

1.67

Stoke City

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Stoke City →

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Linfield or draw

47%

Linfield or Stoke City

75%

Draw or Stoke City

78%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+

Stoke City wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals

61%

Linfield 2+ goals

25%

Linfield 3+ goals

Stoke City 1+ goals

81%

Stoke City 2+ goals

49%

Stoke City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)

29%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 0.50 + Stoke City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Stoke City attack 1.60 + Linfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Linfield scores more

22%

level

25%

Stoke City scores more

53%

Stoke City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stoke City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff