Linfield 0–3 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

Linfield

0 – 3

ST Mirren

7/3/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Queen's University Malone Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Linfield7%

×Draw17%

ST Mirren77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinfieldExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.45

2.13

Linfield

0.45

ST Mirren

2.13

ST Mirren creates 373% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

2.60

1.67

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Linfield

0.50

ST Mirren

2.60

allows per match

Linfield

1.67

ST Mirren

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par

ST Mirren+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

ST Mirren →

0–08%

0–116%

0–217%

0–312%

0–47%

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Linfield or draw

23%

Linfield or ST Mirren

83%

Draw or ST Mirren

93%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+

ST Mirren wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals

36%

Linfield 2+ goals

Linfield 3+ goals

ST Mirren 1+ goals

88%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

63%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 0.50 + ST Mirren defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

ST Mirren attack 2.60 + Linfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Linfield scores more

level

17%

ST Mirren scores more

77%

ST Mirren at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "ST Mirren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff