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Linfield vs Qarabag — UEFA Europa League 2018

Linfield
Linfield
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Qarabag
Qarabag
8/22/2019UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Play-offsWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Linfield39%
×Draw26%
Qarabag35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
1.39
Qarabag
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Linfield
1.40
Qarabag
1.19

allows per match

Linfield
1.40
Qarabag
1.38

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
65%
Linfield or Qarabag
74%
Draw or Qarabag
61%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
18%
Qarabag wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
75%
Linfield 2+ goals
40%
Linfield 3+ goals
16%
Qarabag 1+ goals
72%
Qarabag 2+ goals
37%
Qarabag 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
53%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Qarabag away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 1.40 + Qarabag defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Qarabag attack 1.19 + Linfield defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Linfield scores more
39%
level
26%
Qarabag scores more
35%

Linfield at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Linfield 3–2 Qarabag

Linfield beat Qarabag 3-2 in UEFA Europa League on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.