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Linfield vs Glenavon FC — League #408 2026

Linfield
Linfield
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
3/15/2025League #408League #408 · Round 32Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Linfield57%
×Draw24%
Glenavon FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
1.68
Glenavon FC
0.86

Linfield creates 95% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Linfield
1.86
Glenavon FC
1.30

allows per match

Linfield
0.43
Glenavon FC
1.50

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
Glenavon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Glenavon FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
81%
Linfield or Glenavon FC
76%
Draw or Glenavon FC
43%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
31%
Glenavon FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
81%
Linfield 2+ goals
50%
Linfield 3+ goals
24%
Glenavon FC 1+ goals
58%
Glenavon FC 2+ goals
21%
Glenavon FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
75%
Glenavon FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Glenavon FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 1.86 + Glenavon FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Glenavon FC attack 1.30 + Linfield defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Linfield scores more
57%
level
24%
Glenavon FC scores more
19%

Linfield at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #408: Linfield 2–0 Glenavon FC

Linfield beat Glenavon FC 2-0 in League #408 on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.