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Linfield vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — UEFA Champions League 2018

Linfield
Linfield
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
7/13/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying RoundWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Linfield40%
×Draw28%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
1.27
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.13

Linfield creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Linfield
0.75
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.00

allows per match

Linfield
1.25
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.80

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
67%
Linfield or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
72%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
60%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
18%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
72%
Linfield 2+ goals
36%
Linfield 3+ goals
14%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
68%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
31%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
55%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 0.75 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.00 + Linfield defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Linfield scores more
40%
level
28%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
33%

Linfield at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linfield vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius

FK Zalgiris Vilnius beat Linfield 2-1 in UEFA Champions League on July 13, 2021.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.