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Linfield vs FC Zurich — UEFA Europa League 2018

Linfield
Linfield
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Zurich
FC Zurich
8/4/2022UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Linfield44%
×Draw27%
FC Zurich28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
1.36
FC Zurich
1.03

Linfield creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Linfield
1.40
FC Zurich
0.67

allows per match

Linfield
1.40
FC Zurich
1.33

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
FC Zurich+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

FC Zurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
72%
Linfield or FC Zurich
73%
Draw or FC Zurich
56%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
21%
FC Zurich wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
74%
Linfield 2+ goals
39%
Linfield 3+ goals
16%
FC Zurich 1+ goals
64%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
28%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
61%
FC Zurich (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 1.40 + FC Zurich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Zurich attack 0.67 + Linfield defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Linfield scores more
44%
level
27%
FC Zurich scores more
28%

Linfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Linfield 0–2 FC Zurich

FC Zurich beat Linfield 2-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 4, 2022.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.