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Linfield vs Aberdeen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Linfield
Linfield
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Aberdeen
Aberdeen
D. Lobban 36'
B. Lyons 6'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Linfield12%
×Draw29%
Aberdeen60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
0.42
Aberdeen
1.33

Aberdeen creates 217% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Linfield
0.50
Aberdeen
1.00

allows per match

Linfield
1.67
Aberdeen
0.33

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
Aberdeen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Aberdeen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–123%
0–215%
0–37%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
40%
Linfield or Aberdeen
71%
Draw or Aberdeen
88%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
2%
Aberdeen wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
34%
Linfield 2+ goals
7%
Linfield 3+ goals
1%
Aberdeen 1+ goals
74%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
38%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
16%
Aberdeen (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Aberdeen away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 0.50 + Aberdeen defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.42

Aberdeen attack 1.00 + Linfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Linfield scores more
12%
level
29%
Aberdeen scores more
60%

Aberdeen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
B. Lyons
36'
D. Lobban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Linfield 0–2 Aberdeen

Aberdeen beat Linfield 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: B. Lyons (6'), D. Lobban (36').