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Linense vs Unionistas de Salamanca — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Unionistas de Salamanca
Unionistas de Salamanca
1/18/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense41%
×Draw29%
Unionistas de Salamanca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.19
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.98

Linense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
Unionistas de Salamanca
0.91

allows per match

Linense
1.05
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.27

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Linense or draw
70%
Linense or Unionistas de Salamanca
71%
Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca
59%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
18%
Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
70%
Linense 2+ goals
33%
Linense 3+ goals
12%
Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals
62%
Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals
26%
Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
57%
Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Linense scores more
41%
level
29%
Unionistas de Salamanca scores more
30%

Linense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Linense 0–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Unionistas de Salamanca beat Linense 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.