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Linense vs Sevilla Atletico — League #878 2026

Linense
Linense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
11/12/2023League #878League #878 · Group 4 - 11Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Linense25%
×Draw35%
Sevilla Atletico40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
0.68
Sevilla Atletico
0.94

Sevilla Atletico creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Linense
0.50
Sevilla Atletico
0.71

allows per match

Linense
1.17
Sevilla Atletico
0.86

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Linense or draw
60%
Linense or Sevilla Atletico
65%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
75%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
7%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
49%
Linense 2+ goals
15%
Linense 3+ goals
3%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
61%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
24%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
39%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 0.50 + Sevilla Atletico defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.71 + Linense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Linense scores more
25%
level
35%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
40%

Sevilla Atletico at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sevilla Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #878: Linense 2–0 Sevilla Atletico

Linense beat Sevilla Atletico 2-0 in League #878 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.