Linense 0–0 Llagostera: Result & Stats

Linense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Llagostera

2/13/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense54%

×Draw26%

Llagostera19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinenseExpected goals in this matchLlagostera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.76

Linense

1.48

Llagostera

0.76

Linense creates 95% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

0.58

0.95

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Linense

1.37

Llagostera

0.58

allows per match

Linense

0.95

Llagostera

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linense+0.00on par

Llagostera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Llagostera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Linense or draw

81%

Linense or Llagostera

74%

Draw or Llagostera

46%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+

28%

Llagostera wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals

77%

Linense 2+ goals

43%

Linense 3+ goals

19%

Llagostera 1+ goals

53%

Llagostera 2+ goals

18%

Llagostera 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)

74%

Llagostera (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Llagostera away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.37 + Llagostera defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Llagostera attack 0.58 + Linense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Linense scores more

54%

level

26%

Llagostera scores more

19%

Linense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff