Linense 2–2 Dos Hermanas: Result & Stats

Linense

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dos Hermanas

12/14/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Linense41%

×Draw26%

Dos Hermanas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LinenseExpected goals in this matchDos Hermanas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.25

Linense

1.41

Dos Hermanas

1.25

Linense creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

1.29

creates per match

1.74

0.76

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Linense

1.29

Dos Hermanas

1.74

allows per match

Linense

0.76

Dos Hermanas

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Linense+0.00on par

Dos Hermanas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Dos Hermanas →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Linense or draw

67%

Linense or Dos Hermanas

74%

Draw or Dos Hermanas

59%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+

19%

Dos Hermanas wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals

76%

Linense 2+ goals

41%

Linense 3+ goals

17%

Dos Hermanas 1+ goals

71%

Dos Hermanas 2+ goals

36%

Dos Hermanas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)

55%

Dos Hermanas (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dos Hermanas away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.29 + Dos Hermanas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dos Hermanas attack 1.74 + Linense defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Linense scores more

41%

level

26%

Dos Hermanas scores more

33%

Linense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff