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Linense vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
3/5/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense32%
×Draw30%
Deportivo La Coruna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
0.98
Deportivo La Coruna
1.10

Deportivo La Coruna creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Linense
1.05
Deportivo La Coruna
0.84

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Linense or draw
62%
Linense or Deportivo La Coruna
70%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
68%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
62%
Linense 2+ goals
26%
Linense 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
46%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Linense scores more
32%
level
30%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
38%

Deportivo La Coruna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Linense 0–0 Deportivo La Coruna

Linense and Deportivo La Coruna drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.