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Linense vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Linense
Linense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
3/12/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Linense42%
×Draw30%
Badajoz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linense
1.19
Badajoz
0.91

Linense creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

Linense
1.11
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Linense
1.05
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Linense+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linense ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Linense or draw
72%
Linense or Badajoz
70%
Draw or Badajoz
58%

Winning margin

Linense wins by 2+
18%
Badajoz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Linense 1+ goals
70%
Linense 2+ goals
33%
Linense 3+ goals
12%
Badajoz 1+ goals
60%
Badajoz 2+ goals
23%
Badajoz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Linense (draw refunded)
60%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linense at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linense attack 1.11 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Linense defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Linense scores more
42%
level
30%
Badajoz scores more
28%

Linense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Linense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linense vs Badajoz

Linense and Badajoz drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Línea de la Concepción in La Línea de la Concepción.