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Lindome vs Jonsered — Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2019

Lindome
Lindome
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Jonsered
Jonsered
A. Sondergaard 48'
J. Ortorp 39'
R. A. Karlsson 26'
J. Hartwig 2'
8/3/2024Division 2 - Västra GötalandDivision 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 15Lindevi IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lindome47%
×Draw21%
Jonsered32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lindome
2.05
Jonsered
1.67

Lindome creates 23% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lindome
2.04
Jonsered
1.58

allows per match

Lindome
1.75
Jonsered
2.06

finishing

Lindome+0.00on par
Jonsered+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lindome ↓

Jonsered →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lindome or draw
68%
Lindome or Jonsered
79%
Draw or Jonsered
53%

Winning margin

Lindome wins by 2+
27%
Jonsered wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lindome 1+ goals
87%
Lindome 2+ goals
61%
Lindome 3+ goals
33%
Jonsered 1+ goals
81%
Jonsered 2+ goals
50%
Jonsered 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lindome (draw refunded)
59%
Jonsered (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lindome at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.75 · 48 matches

Jonsered away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lindome attack 2.04 + Jonsered defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.05

Jonsered attack 1.58 + Lindome defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lindome scores more
47%
level
21%
Jonsered scores more
32%

Lindome at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lindome will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
J. Hartwig
26'
R. A. Karlsson
39'
J. Ortorp
48'
A. Sondergaard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Västra Götaland: Lindome 1–3 Jonsered

Jonsered beat Lindome 3-1 in Division 2 - Västra Götaland on August 3, 2024.

Goals: J. Hartwig (2'), R. A. Karlsson (26'), J. Ortorp (39'), A. Sondergaard (48').

The match was played at Lindevi IP in Lindome.