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Lindome vs Dalstorps — Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2019

Lindome
Lindome
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dalstorps
Dalstorps
K. Landsten 81'
V. Gustafsson 39'
4/17/2026Division 2 - Västra GötalandDivision 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Lindome49%
×Draw21%
Dalstorps30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lindome
2.19
Dalstorps
1.69

Lindome creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lindome
2.04
Dalstorps
1.62

allows per match

Lindome
1.75
Dalstorps
2.33

finishing

Lindome+0.00on par
Dalstorps+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lindome ↓

Dalstorps →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lindome or draw
70%
Lindome or Dalstorps
79%
Draw or Dalstorps
51%

Winning margin

Lindome wins by 2+
29%
Dalstorps wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lindome 1+ goals
89%
Lindome 2+ goals
64%
Lindome 3+ goals
37%
Dalstorps 1+ goals
82%
Dalstorps 2+ goals
50%
Dalstorps 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lindome (draw refunded)
62%
Dalstorps (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lindome at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.75 · 48 matches

Dalstorps away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lindome attack 2.04 + Dalstorps defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dalstorps attack 1.62 + Lindome defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lindome scores more
49%
level
21%
Dalstorps scores more
30%

Lindome at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lindome will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
V. Gustafsson
81'
K. Landsten
Lindome
Dalstorps
B. Zuta
Manager: B. Zuta
M. Örn
Manager: M. Örn

Division 2 - Västra Götaland: Lindome 1–1 Dalstorps

Lindome and Dalstorps drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Västra Götaland on April 17, 2026.

Goals: V. Gustafsson (39'), K. Landsten (81').