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Lincoln vs Wigan — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Wigan
Wigan
A. Scully 14'
C. Lang 72', 8'
W. Keane 21'
4/9/2022League OneLeague One · Round 42LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Lincoln52%
×Draw23%
Wigan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.85
Wigan
1.20

Lincoln creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Wigan
1.07

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Wigan
1.70

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Wigan-0.07on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
75%
Lincoln or Wigan
77%
Draw or Wigan
48%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
30%
Wigan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
84%
Lincoln 2+ goals
55%
Lincoln 3+ goals
28%
Wigan 1+ goals
70%
Wigan 2+ goals
34%
Wigan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
68%
Wigan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.70 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Wigan defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.85

Wigan attack 1.07 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lincoln scores more
52%
level
23%
Wigan scores more
25%

Lincoln at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
C. LangWiganWigan · F
9.3

Match Events

8'
C. Lang↳ J. Magennis
12'
Tom Naylor
14'
A. Scully
21'
W. Keane↳ C. Lang
38'
Liam Cullen
54'
Kelland Watts
56'
Jason Kerr
72'
C. Lang↳ W. Keane
79'
T. Hopper← L. Cullen
79'
J. Marquis← E. Bishop
79'
S. Humphrys← W. Keane
82'
Tendayi Darikwa
88'
G. Massey← J. Bennett

Possession

59%Lincoln

Shots

13Lincoln

Pass accuracy

52%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnWigan
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots14
5Corners8
8Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots14
4On Target6
3Off Target7
6Blocked1
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box7
Passing
59%Possession41%
522Total Passes365
409Accurate Passes267
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 1–3 Wigan

Wigan beat Lincoln 3-1 in League One on April 9, 2022.

Goals: C. Lang (8', 72'), A. Scully (14'), W. Keane (21').

Lincoln controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.