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Lincoln vs Tranmere — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
J. Akinde 77'
12/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 21Sincil Bank

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lincoln53%
×Draw25%
Tranmere22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.64
Tranmere
0.97

Lincoln creates 69% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Tranmere
0.95

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Tranmere
1.79

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
78%
Lincoln or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
47%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
28%
Tranmere wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
81%
Lincoln 2+ goals
49%
Lincoln 3+ goals
23%
Tranmere 1+ goals
62%
Tranmere 2+ goals
25%
Tranmere 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
70%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Tranmere defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tranmere attack 0.95 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lincoln scores more
53%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
22%

Lincoln at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
M. BostwickLincolnLincoln · D
7.3

Match Events

18'
Michael Bostwick
36'
Corey Taylor
40'
Corey Taylor
40'
Corey Taylor
49'
John Akinde
58'
T. Walker← J. Morrell
65'
Ellis Chapman
75'
J. Payne← H. Anderson
75'
S. Payne← R. Hepburn-Murphy
77'
J. Akinde
86'
M. Melbourne← J. Akinde

Possession

68%Lincoln

Shots

12Lincoln

Pass accuracy

56%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnTranmere
Overview
68%Possession32%
12Total Shots5
6Corners5
18Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots5
1On Target1
5Off Target2
6Blocked2
8Inside Box3
4Outside Box2
Passing
68%Possession32%
480Total Passes222
386Accurate Passes139
80%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
18Fouls7
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Tranmere

Lincoln beat Tranmere 1-0 in League One on December 14, 2019.

Goals: J. Akinde (77').

Lincoln controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Sincil Bank in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.