Lincoln 1–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

C. McGrandles 42'

L. Leahy 50'

10/30/2021

League One · Round 16LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 152+ matches

Lincoln49%

×Draw27%

Shrewsbury24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.93

Lincoln

1.44

Shrewsbury

0.93

Lincoln creates 55% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 152 away

1.49

creates per match

0.86

0.99

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

76%

Lincoln or Shrewsbury

73%

Draw or Shrewsbury

51%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

24%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

76%

Lincoln 2+ goals

42%

Lincoln 3+ goals

18%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

61%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

24%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

67%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lincoln scores more

49%

level

27%

Shrewsbury scores more

24%

Lincoln at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Leahy

Shrewsbury · M

8.0

Match Events

13'

Lewis Fiorini

30'

Daniel Udoh

37'

T. Eyoma← A. Jackson

42'

C. McGrandles↳ R. Poole

46'

H. Adelakun← E. Bishop

50'

L. Leahy↳ G. Nurse

65'

M. Sanders← L. Fiorini

74'

C. Bramall← J. Robson

76'

R. Pyke← D. Udoh

80'

Shaun Whalley

85'

F. Draper← L. Sørensen

89'

Regan Poole

90'

T. Bloxham← R. Bowman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnShrewsbury

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots17

4Corners8

11Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots17

7On Target7

5Off Target7

5Blocked3

9Inside Box9

8Outside Box8

Passing

64%Possession36%

497Total Passes266

399Accurate Passes159

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0