Lincoln 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Lincoln

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sheffield Wednesday

J. Marquis 76', 3'

B. Norton-Cuffy 62'

S. Berahino 33'

3/5/2022

League One · Round 37LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Lincoln41%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Wednesday32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.15

Lincoln

1.35

Sheffield Wednesday

1.15

Lincoln creates 17% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 53 away

1.49

creates per match

1.30

0.99

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Lincoln

1.49

Sheffield Wednesday

1.30

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Sheffield Wednesday

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

68%

Lincoln or Sheffield Wednesday

73%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

59%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

19%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

74%

Lincoln 2+ goals

39%

Lincoln 3+ goals

15%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

68%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

32%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

56%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lincoln scores more

41%

level

27%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

32%

Lincoln at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

J. Marquis

Lincoln · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

J. Marquis↳ M. Whittaker

16'

Chris Maguire

29'

Conor McGrandles

29'

Callum Paterson

33'

S. Berahino↳ M. Johnson

62'

B. Norton-Cuffy↳ T. Hopper

67'

L. Gregory← C. Paterson

68'

F. Kamberi← S. Berahino

75'

F. Dele-Bashiru← G. Byers

76'

J. Marquis↳ C. McGrandles

90+4'

J. Wright← J. Griffiths

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnSheffield

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots15

8Corners7

12Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots15

9On Target1

4Off Target8

1Blocked6

7Inside Box9

7Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

305Total Passes492

210Accurate Passes387

69%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1