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Lincoln vs Sheffield Utd — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lincoln
Lincoln
CANC
10:00
HT: 0 – 2
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
7/12/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lincoln20%
×Draw23%
Sheffield Utd57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
0.95
Sheffield Utd
1.77

Sheffield Utd creates 86% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.33
Sheffield Utd
1.86

allows per match

Lincoln
1.67
Sheffield Utd
0.57

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
43%
Lincoln or Sheffield Utd
77%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
80%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
7%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
61%
Lincoln 2+ goals
25%
Lincoln 3+ goals
7%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
83%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
53%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
26%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.33 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Sheffield Utd attack 1.86 + Lincoln defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lincoln scores more
20%
level
23%
Sheffield Utd scores more
57%

Sheffield Utd at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lincoln host Sheffield Utd

July 12, 2022: Lincoln take on Sheffield Utd in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lincoln host Sheffield Utd at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.