Lincoln 0–2 Portsmouth: Result & Stats | League One

Lincoln

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

2 P. Lane 90+12'

M. Peart-Harris 81'

4/27/2024

League One · Round 46LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Lincoln40%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LincolnExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.17

Lincoln

1.31

Portsmouth

1.17

Lincoln creates 12% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 134 away

1.53

creates per match

1.34

0.99

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Lincoln

1.53

Portsmouth

1.34

allows per match

Lincoln

0.99

Portsmouth

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw

67%

Lincoln or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

60%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+

18%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals

73%

Lincoln 2+ goals

38%

Lincoln 3+ goals

14%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

69%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

33%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)

55%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.53 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lincoln scores more

40%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

33%

Lincoln at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

P. Lane

Portsmouth · M

8.3

Match Events

37'

39'

39'

42'

56'

56'

57'

59'

65'

A. Kamara← T. Anjorin

66'

66'

70'

76'

79'

T. Walker← A. Mitchell

81'

M. Peart-Harris↳ P. Lane

86'

90+7'

90+9'

90+4'

90'

T. Devlin← M. Peart-Harris

90+12'

2 P. Lane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LincolnPortsmouth

Overview

32%Possession68%

12Total Shots11

6Corners4

14Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target6

6Off Target1

4Blocked4

8Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

32%Possession68%

232Total Passes532

123Accurate Passes407

53%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

3Yellow Cards7

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat Lincoln 2-0 in League One on April 27, 2024.

Goals: M. Peart-Harris (81'), 2 P. Lane (90+12').

Portsmouth controlled possession (68%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.

Lincoln vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Portsmouth