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Lincoln vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Plymouth
Plymouth
A. Scully 90' (pen)
L. Sørensen 66'
B. Galloway 74'
R. Hardie 25'
10/2/2021League OneLeague One · Round 11LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln37%
×Draw23%
Plymouth40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.61
Plymouth
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Plymouth
2.00

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Plymouth
1.22

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
60%
Lincoln or Plymouth
77%
Draw or Plymouth
63%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
18%
Plymouth wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
80%
Lincoln 2+ goals
48%
Lincoln 3+ goals
22%
Plymouth 1+ goals
81%
Plymouth 2+ goals
50%
Plymouth 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
48%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.61

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lincoln scores more
37%
level
23%
Plymouth scores more
40%

Plymouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
L. SørensenLincolnLincoln · M
8.0

Match Events

25'
R. Hardie↳ J. Edwards
32'
J. Robson← L. Bridcutt
36'
Teddy Bishop
45+4'
Dan N'Lundulu
65'
M. Sanders← R. Poole
66'
L. Sørensen↳ C. Bramall
69'
C. Maguire← C. Bramall
74'
B. Galloway↳ D. Scarr
80'
Chris Maguire
82'
K. Agard← R. Hardie
90+2'
Anthony Scully
90+2'
Joe Edwards
90'
Dan Scarr
90'
A. ScullyPenalty

Possession

60%Lincoln

Shots

10Lincoln

Pass accuracy

52%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnPlymouth
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots13
4Corners6
15Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots13
3On Target4
1Off Target6
6Blocked3
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box6
Passing
60%Possession40%
561Total Passes367
450Accurate Passes273
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls9
4Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 2–2 Plymouth

Lincoln and Plymouth drew 2-2 in League One on October 2, 2021.

Goals: R. Hardie (25'), L. Sørensen (66'), B. Galloway (74'), A. Scully (90' pen).

Lincoln controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 13.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.