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Lincoln vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
10/5/2024League OneLeague One · Round 10LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Lincoln44%
×Draw26%
Leyton Orient30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.48
Leyton Orient
1.16

Lincoln creates 28% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 71 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.53
Leyton Orient
1.32

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Leyton Orient
1.42

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
70%
Lincoln or Leyton Orient
74%
Draw or Leyton Orient
56%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
22%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
77%
Lincoln 2+ goals
43%
Lincoln 3+ goals
19%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
69%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
32%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
60%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.53 + Leyton Orient defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Leyton Orient attack 1.32 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lincoln scores more
44%
level
26%
Leyton Orient scores more
30%

Lincoln at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Lincoln 2–1 Leyton Orient

Lincoln beat Leyton Orient 2-1 in League One on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.