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Lincoln vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
J. Makama 90'
3/29/2024League OneLeague One · Round 41LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lincoln54%
×Draw22%
Leyton Orient24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.91
Leyton Orient
1.19

Lincoln creates 61% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lincoln
2.01
Leyton Orient
1.05

allows per match

Lincoln
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.81

finishing

Lincoln+0.26scores more
Leyton Orient-0.23scores less

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
76%
Lincoln or Leyton Orient
78%
Draw or Leyton Orient
46%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
31%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
85%
Lincoln 2+ goals
57%
Lincoln 3+ goals
30%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
70%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
33%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
70%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 11 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 2.01 + Leyton Orient defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.91

Leyton Orient attack 1.05 + Lincoln defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lincoln scores more
54%
level
22%
Leyton Orient scores more
24%

Lincoln at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
P. O'ConnorLincolnLincoln · D
7.7

Match Events

19'
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
55'
Max Sanders
61'
G. Moncur← M. Sanders
61'
O. O'Neill← S. Forde
64'
F. Draper← J. Moylan
68'
Jordan Brown
73'
Ruel Sotiriou
78'
D. Duffy← R. Hackett
78'
J. Pigott← D. Pratley
85'
E. Galbraith← I. El Mizouni
85'
D. Adu-Adjei← R. Sotiriou
89'
T. Eyoma← D. Mândroiu
89'
J. Makama← J. Taylor
90'
J. Makama

Possession

46%Lincoln

Shots

5Lincoln

Pass accuracy

48%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnLeyton
Overview
46%Possession54%
5Total Shots14
2Corners5
7Fouls17
Shots
5Total Shots14
2On Target5
2Off Target4
1Blocked5
4Inside Box7
1Outside Box7
Passing
46%Possession54%
311Total Passes371
192Accurate Passes254
62%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls17
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

League One: Lincoln 1–0 Leyton Orient

Lincoln beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League One on March 29, 2024.

Goals: J. Makama (90').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.