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Lincoln vs Ipswich — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ipswich
Ipswich
J. Grant 77' (pen)
10/24/2020League OneLeague One · Round 8LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Lincoln39%
×Draw28%
Ipswich33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.25
Ipswich
1.13

Lincoln creates 11% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Ipswich
1.27

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Ipswich
1.01

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Ipswich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
67%
Lincoln or Ipswich
72%
Draw or Ipswich
61%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
17%
Ipswich wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
71%
Lincoln 2+ goals
36%
Lincoln 3+ goals
13%
Ipswich 1+ goals
68%
Ipswich 2+ goals
31%
Ipswich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%
Ipswich (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lincoln scores more
39%
level
28%
Ipswich scores more
33%

Lincoln at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
T. EyomaLincolnLincoln · D
7.7

Match Events

77'
J. GrantPenalty
80'
K. Bennetts← J. Lankester
84'
T. Hopper← B. Johnson
90'
Adetayo Edun
90'
Conor McGrandles
90'
Teddy Bishop
90'
Jon Nolan

Possession

37%Lincoln

Shots

11Lincoln

Pass accuracy

47%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnIpswich
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots8
5Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots8
4On Target2
6Off Target3
1Blocked3
7Inside Box2
4Outside Box6
Passing
37%Possession63%
380Total Passes642
290Accurate Passes550
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

League One: Lincoln 1–0 Ipswich

Lincoln beat Ipswich 1-0 in League One on October 24, 2020.

Goals: J. Grant (77' pen).

Ipswich controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.