Ipswich 0–1 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lincoln

B. House 24'

10/15/2022

League One · Round 15Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich47%

×Draw26%

Lincoln27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Ipswich

1.46

Lincoln

1.04

Ipswich creates 40% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 156 away

1.70

creates per match

1.26

0.83

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Lincoln

1.26

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Lincoln

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

73%

Ipswich or Lincoln

74%

Draw or Lincoln

53%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

23%

Lincoln wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

77%

Ipswich 2+ goals

43%

Ipswich 3+ goals

18%

Lincoln 1+ goals

65%

Lincoln 2+ goals

28%

Lincoln 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

63%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ipswich scores more

47%

level

26%

Lincoln scores more

27%

Ipswich at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

L. Evans

Ipswich · M

9.2

Match Events

24'

B. House↳ P. O'Connor

44'

Lee Evans

66'

T. John-Jules← F. Ladapo

66'

K. Edwards← C. Chaplin

76'

L. Sørensen← D. Mândroiu

79'

K. Jackson← W. Burns

79'

K. Vincent-Young← J. Donacien

85'

D. Ball← G. Edmundson

85'

J. Garrick← B. House

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichLincoln

Overview

76%Possession24%

33Total Shots3

14Corners4

2Fouls9

Shots

33Total Shots3

5On Target2

12Off Target1

16Blocked0

20Inside Box3

13Outside Box0

Passing

76%Possession24%

741Total Passes230

626Accurate Passes113

84%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

2Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0