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Lincoln vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
8/27/2022League OneLeague One · Round 6LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Lincoln46%
×Draw26%
Fleetwood Town28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.48
Fleetwood Town
1.08

Lincoln creates 37% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 134 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.53
Fleetwood Town
1.18

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
72%
Lincoln or Fleetwood Town
74%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
54%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
23%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
77%
Lincoln 2+ goals
43%
Lincoln 3+ goals
19%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
66%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
29%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
63%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.99 · 156 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.53 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lincoln scores more
46%
level
26%
Fleetwood Town scores more
28%

Lincoln at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lincoln vs Fleetwood Town

Lincoln and Fleetwood Town drew 2-2 in League One on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.